Sunday, February 26, 2012

Friday 2/24/12 Market Update

The count from Thursday's update has not changed. If the wave is not already complete, the market is likely tracing out wave [v], the final impulse to the impulse wave that began at the December low. At this time, it is difficult to say whether or not wave [v] is complete; wave action is not conclusive at this time.

There is a generally satisfying form to the impulse wave C above, but some of the sub-waves are breaking retracement and symmetry guidelines. A more complex option is the alternate count above. It has the advantage of avoiding the steep wave iv of (iii) retracement above, but the market will need to maintain the current uptrend for perhaps one month more. Since this action seems to have a low probability of occurring, and as previously discussed the longer term view since October suggests a zigzag higher since November is unfolding where there should be a noticeable proportionality between A and C, the primary count above has not changed.

There is no change to the longer term view. The triangle alternate above is the best alternate count at this time. It leaves a good deal to be desired in terms of proportionality and balance.

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