Monday, April 23, 2012

Monday 4/23/12 Market Update


There is some change to the count seen in yesterday's update following today's sharp downward move.  When considering a variety of options, a wave [4] triangle still appears to be unfolding.  'c' waves of triangles are usually complex and the above wave (C) certainly qualifies.  What brings serious doubt to this count is the truncation of wave Y of (C) which is uncommon.

This count has much going for it otherwise.  Consider the non-impulsive upward action of the March-April wave.  In addition, the swing lower following this is very difficult to label as an impulse.  If a triangle proves not to be the correct assessment, a different sideways correction underway is certainly worth considering and is the best alternate count on this scale.  Options for alternates vary at this time; there is no clear favorite.

Wave a and c still lack good proportionality.  New recovery highs in the future, which the primary count here suggests, are very much in line with this consideration.  Some other impulsive variation of which c is labeled is possible.

At the same time when considering wave structure, in the longer term the best alternate count is a complete wave c impulse wave following the November 2011 low.

In the short term, a low worth noting may have been seen today.  But again, the truncation discussed above is a major issue.

Nearly a year after it was written, the longer term discussion found here is still very much valid.

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