Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Wednesday 4/11/12 Market Update

There is some modification to the short term count from the last update. A complete double zigzag down since the last recovery high is possible, but not likely given the longer term action.

The choppy advance higher from the middle of last month into early this month is likely part of a sideways correction down within a larger uptrend or an ending diagonal as described above. If yesterday's low proves to be a significant low, then the March-April rally can be a 1st wave leading diagonal with second wave double zigzag lower following. If an uptrend is underway, a probably more likely count is a flat down since late February.

The market tends to create patterns more simple than complex. The most simple view since March 2009 is a complete single zigzag higher as described above. The count can quickly change to something more bullish if there is a strong move higher and obviously a new recovery high. There are proportionality issues with the zigzag since March 2009, with a bearish count far from being solidified.

I will do my best to get an update out for tomorrow, but I am still out of town and it will prove to be difficult.

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