Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Wednesday 11/14/12 Market Update

The market made another move down today.  A triple zigzag correction down since September or double zigzag down since October are still the best options, but there has been some movement of the past week's labels since the last update.

There is still no loss of wedging to the upside, but the market is approaching a critical juncture where it must rally so as not to retrace too much of the June to September rally. 1440 is about the maximum level to be reached before the bearish count (alternate 2) becomes the primary.

The alternate and primary counts are very good options in my opinion even thought the market has been continuing lower.  Also remember that a new recovery high looks likely given the wave count possibilities within the rally to September or October that began in June.  There may be an impulse wave down since October, but this is a very awkward looking wave.  There are clear corrective features dominating each of the legs lower since September and it is hard to workaround this.  If there is a crash of 30+ points down in one day, it would be the core of an impulse down since September or October and would resolve some problems for the bearish count.  But the technical condition of the market makes this look unlikely.

Although the sub-waves of [iii] are not very good, the complete wave count for C above looks like a fairly strong option in my opinion.  There should be a strong move higher coming that can begin with a gap.

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