Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Tuesday 1/29/13 Market Update

It was stated in yesterday's update that a small downward correction was underway and a break above the highs over the past few days would probably mean [v] is underway.  There appears to be a clear triangle and impulsive break out of that triangle.  Because of the complexity of this impulse wave, it appears to be a 5th wave rather than a 1st of a 5th wave.  The important thing to recognize is the high probability of a complete 4th and complete/nearly complete 5th wave today within a very mature uptrend.

If the primary count is correct, [v] is likely complete or nearly complete.  The primary count still looks good, but there are a number of reasonable alternatives all suggesting the winding down of an impulse wave that began 1/8/13.  The Alternate' count is a very good count and is essentially the same probability as the primary.  Breadth seems to be best during 1/17 which is usually the core of an impulsive move, but there are broken guidelines in the primary count.

There is no change to the longer term counts.  Note that C is still shorter than A, so the alternate for an impulse that began 1/31/12 is still a weaker option.

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