Saturday, February 23, 2013

Friday 2/22/13 Market Update

There is no change to the count since the last update.  A clear impulse down since the last recovery high has likely unfolded.  The ensuing bounce best resembles a double zigzag and at this point is not impulsive.

If the count is correct, price should not rise much above the closing level Friday where there is some resistance.  If price moves to the to the 78.6% level, a zigzag down since the last high might be a better option.

The rally from the February low to the February high looks most like an impulse.  A triple zigzag is also possible, but this is a much more rare pattern.  A complete zigzag or impulse wave higher since 12/31/12 is the best view.  With this in mind, the best alternate (alternate') seems to be a zigzag underway since 12/31 for an incomplete double zigzag wave [5][5] is already large however, so this count is not preferred.  As the count stands now, the limit to [5] is 1550.

It is very difficult to visualize anything other than zigzag waves higher over the past few years.  The primary count is a strong option when looking at the above perspective and also when inspecting the subwaves.  If it is correct, the market should begin making a clear statement to the downside perhaps in dramatic fashion.  The downside risk seems to be so much greater than the upside potential, especially when considering the all-time high resistance that the market is currently feeling.

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