Wednesday, February 13, 2013
(b) of [y] was moved forward slightly, but otherwise the count remains unchanged since the last update.
The rally since 2/4 to new recovery highs looks very corrective so this makes it likely that a sideways correction is underway. The action resembles a double zigzag and should be wave B of a flat or triangle.
The market can make a sharp fall in the coming days, but this low will likely be yet another pullback before a new recovery high is seen. Obviously if a triangle is unfolding 1495 will hold, but if a flat is underway the 1480s are possible.
These flat or triangle options still look best as wave (XX) of . It was stated in the last update that, "by the time a downward flat or triangle since 2/1 completes, it should be best proportioned with primary wave (X) rather than alternate wave (2)." The correction underway since 2/4 already looks large compared to alternate (2), and there are no great short-term alternates in the current price area, so this helps support the primary count.
The general structure since March 2009 also works best with the primary count. The count is also relatively simple.
Note that there is a strict limit of 1550 for . Since waves usually show proportionality and (W) and (Y) are fairly large, my guess is that (XX) is a flat underway where 1495 will be broken before it completes. This would give more room for (Z).
Posted by Nate at 10:37 PM