Saturday, March 2, 2013

Friday 3/2/13 Market Update

After hours of detailed research this weekend, the primary count has changed to something similar to the alternate count in the last update.  The action over the past 8 days is the reason for the change.

The count is a double zigzag unfolding since the March 2009 low.  It is difficult to see something other than a (sideways) triangle in the area of wave [B] of y which helps support a correction higher still unfolding but not for a great amount of time.

For weeks it has been suggested that the rally since 12/31 to the last recovery high is a complete zigzag or impulse wave.  This wave is now marked as an impulse with its first wave the longest (not an uncommon extension for first waves).

In the last update it was written that, "in the short term this move lower since the last recovery high best resembles a zigzag due to the large retracement and the ending diagonal terminating the second impulse."  A zigzag in this position has essentially been proven with the extremely bullish look to the waves above.  C and 1 have very impulsive looks with the correction since the last recovery high massively retraced.  In addition to this, 1 was followed by a decline looking like 3 waves followed by a bounce retracing more than 61.8% of that.

The ending diagonal count has not been disproved since the market has not reached a new recovery high or a price above 1550, but it is on shaky ground.  If an impulse completes from (2) to a level under 1550, it can still be in the running.  The best projection at this time however is a continued rally for months to all-time highs and 1600+, maybe even 1700.  After that there should be a 3 or 5 wave decline down to retrace at least most of the advance since 2009 to complete a 4th wave that began at the 1999/2000 high.

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