Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Wednesday 5/1/13 Market Update

There is a count for a complete top at Tuesday's high, but for reasons most apparent in the shorter term the uptrend since March 2009 still looks incomplete.

Given today's reversal, Tuesday's action makes the market condition look very bullish as it suggests a sideways corrective wave is underway (it is 3 waves to a new high which is always bullish unless it is part of an ending diagonal).  This is supported by the fact that for various reasons, today's decline clearly looks more corrective than impulsive.  Because so much of the Friday-Tuesday advance was retraced, [b] looks like a triangle underway.  This seems like a very strong option, but something else sideways and more complex could also be developing.  The (b)-(d) line is projected above in dashed green.

As a side note, it may seem odd to suggest that B will blow through A's high, but keep in mind that we are looking for proportionality between (2) and (4).  A [b] correction as suggested here works very well in an incomplete wave B because of its sideways nature and shallowness (it is probably not a 2nd wave correction for these reasons).

The decline following Tuesday's high could develop into an impulsive, strong trend down if an ending diagonal higher (alternate wave (5) in the faint dashed white lines) is complete.  But its wave 1 is so out of proportion with the other waves that the count looks questionable .  (4) also becomes very complex, large and a bit odd which is also a worse option on that scale.

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