Friday, July 12, 2013

Friday 7/12/13 Market Update

The wave count remains bullish even though the short term labels have changed since the last update.  The Thursday gap looks like the core of an impulse wave given the size and ensuing follow-through higher.

Given the complexity and magnitude of sell-off in relation to (2), the best count still calls for an unfolding impulse higher since the low last month.  The core seen this Thursday looks like the core of (5) and using symmetry, the target for (5) is 1760.  This wave looks like it will grind higher for weeks more with only small pullbacks.

The market is clearly in a rallying mode, but momentum has been lost.  Even if there is an impulse higher underway since the 11/28/2011 low like the alternate count or a more bullish count suggests, it will be surprising if the market makes any major gains within the next year.  In fact the entire rally since 2009 looks corrective.  This works very well with the very long term view suggesting sideways [IV] is underway which began in 1999/2000.  This sideways corrective wave should continue for years more as proportionality with wave [II], the wave of the great depression, is sought.

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