Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Wednesday 10/16/13 Market Update

The wave count has changed to an alternate count from the last update.  The count with the triangle wave [4] has not been invalidated, but short term waves today suggest higher prices with a new all-time high only 8 points away and the triangle now only loosing symmetry between its (A)(C) and (B)(D) lines.

If a new all-time high is reached in the coming days, alternate' is possible.  This would add complication to [4] which is already reasonably well proportioned to [2] so this count is not preferred.

It should be obvious that there is more to this month's rally than an impulse wave.  This is following an extremely corrective-looking downward wave from September-October which has nearly been fully retraced.  It seems nearly impossible that there will not be a new all-time high, no matter the wave count that is playing out.  This seems more likely to happen sooner than later because of the problem with the triangle count mentioned above, but also due to the lack of bearish options.

The last few hours of trading made the count with triangle wave [4] change from a decent probability to a much lower one.  The move higher since 2 looks very incomplete, even when using the low probability alternate'' count suggesting a nearly complete impulse since the Tuesday low.

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