Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Wednesday 10/23/13 Market Update

Because of the action today, the alternate' wave count (wave [4] still underway) and alternate count (complete ending diagonal for a major top) from the last update are now the best options.  They are shown in the colored labels and the "or" markings.  Because the subwaves of the "or" wave count above (the ending diagonal) do not look great in relation to one another, the colored wave count (wave [4] still underway) is slightly preferred.

An issue with the alternate' count above has been the deep September-October retracement which actually exceeded 78.6%.  Zigzag family waves see retracements this deep more often than second waves.  The better counts work well with this retracement wave and all subwaves surprisingly work just as well as the alternate' count.

Actually the small waves drawn out the last two days work best with a downward wave still underway.  This might seem surprising considering the extreme retracement of Tuesday's drop, but the extra downside action today following the initial impulse low in the morning is suggestive of a sideways correction underway.  Even if there has been a double zigzag lower with the first zigzag's 'c' wave truncated in an unusual way, the drifting, weak rally today looks very corrective and is difficult to imagine as the start of an impulsive rally.  Perhaps a sideways correction since the Tuesday high is still underway, but then the size of this corrective wave will likely be fairly large in relation to previous corrective periods in the wave higher since the October low and that would suggest that the October rally is complete.

Breaking the 1740 support level will be a bearish sign.  At least the October low should be reached after that level is breached.  The market should not retrace much more of (i) above if the colored count or "or" count is correct so tomorrow's trading action will be important in determining the market's current direction.

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