Saturday, December 21, 2013

Friday 12/20/13 Market Update

There is no change to the primary wave count from the last update.  Since the 8/30/13 low, an impulse higher is likely still developing but it should be completing its impulsive 5th wave.  When it completes, the impulse that began at the 11/25/11 low should complete with it.  Whether this high or an additional multi-month impulse wave high proves to be the completion of the impulse wave that began in late 2011, the bullish case for an impulse underway since the 2009 low is still alive with good probability until the 1550-area support is broken.

Unless a short wave (5) has completed with its internal corrective waves out of proportion, the market should reach another all-time high.

The Friday morning sharp move higher is a tempting place to label the core of (5), but this would require a small, unusual 2nd wave (marked above with the arrow) or a small wave 3 in relation to wave 1.  If an additional move higher to a noticeable new all-time high happens Monday (to make the move look not like part of a 4th wave's 'b' or 'x' wave) and then prices reverse to retrace most of the move, a complete impulse higher since the Wednesday low will be the best option.

Note: Due to the Christmas holiday, the next update will be on the weekend.

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