Friday, December 6, 2013

Friday 12/6/13 Market Update

Little has changed since the last update two days ago.  In that update, the following was stated: "if the market rallies tomorrow to give a 3-wave look to the rally following today's low, keep in mind that an impulse wave down from the last all-time high to today's low is possible, but this is a questionable pattern.  A better fit is a complex upward sideways structure underway since today's morning low."  The wave count has been updated to make wave 2 a flat+zigzag double, what appears to be the best fit.

Even though today's rally retraced much of the preceding decline, the market still looks bearish on a variety of scales.  For instance the rally higher since the Wednesday low has a corrective look.  This reasoning revolves around this question: thinking ahead, where would the core of an impulse wave beginning at this week's low be?  The early strong gap move higher (where the strength is) and small correction and rally after the morning's low (proportionality and momentum problem) work against an impulsive wave count.

The best, and essentially only, bullish wave count for price action next week is an ending diagonal underway since the 11/7/13 low.  This wave count seems so complicated that it is difficult to imagine unfolding however.  It also creates proportionality problems with the waves within the then required impulse unfolding from the 8/30/13 low.

The longer-term wave count options remain unchanged.  The best options all suggest at least a multi-week pullback underway.

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