Saturday, January 18, 2014

Friday 1/17/14 Market Update

The primary wave count suggests a complete impulse from the 11/25/11 low.  There is a lack of proportionality between the corrective waves since 8/30/13  labelled above, however this wave count allows for the best symmetry and proportionality between impulse waves, especially when extrapolating other possibilities forward in time.  The two third waves marked above from 8/30/13 also capture the strongest moves of the trend which is a positive.

If price rallies to a new all-time high, there will likely be a continuation higher for weeks more.

Due to the subwaves, it seems doubtful that a sideways correction is not complete since 12/31/13.  So 1/13/14 should have been the start of an impulse wave higher.  While last week's rally did make a new all-time high, it was fairly small relative to the other waves higher since 11/7/13.  Any extension higher however will create a more complex and out-of-balance wave in the longer-term picture.  The pull-back since 1/15/14 can be a complete double zigzag, but the better option is the impulsive one labelled above.  This chart does not strongly favor one side or another in the short-term however; it will take a continued sell-off under the 1830s or a rally to a new all-time high to make a more definitive case for the bearish and bullish sides, respectively.

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