Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Tuesday 12/31/13 Market Update

The wave count options that exist in the long-term picture remain unchanged from the last update.  As mentioned previously, the higher the market goes, the lower the probability of a completing wave that began at the 2009 low.  There is a chance for a top when the wave from 12/18/13 completes.  If the market corrects then surges beyond this level, the primary wave count will become less favorable, perhaps significantly enough to make it an alternate choice.

The 10/13-12/13 wave (4) is almost certainly a correction as marked, not a brief correction then 1st and 2nd wave.  If this is true, then there is an impulse higher developing since 8/30/13 (the primary option) or 10/9/13 (an alternate option).

The core of the impulse since 12/18/13 almost certainly unfolded already.  This seems to support an impulse wave higher since 8/30 which the primary count uses.

Wave (5) may be complete, but a continuation higher would give it better balance as the best options suggest the core to be 12/26 (where the chart error is in the chart above).

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