Sunday, February 2, 2014

Friday 1/31/14 Market Update

The primary wave count from the last update remains unchanged.  I now see a possible way of describing a complete impulse wave higher since October 2011, so even if there is a continued sell-off in the coming weeks and months, the alternate wave count will remain alive.

While there are still a number of ways to describe the 2013 rally in the larger context, some were essentially eliminated Friday with the near new short-term low.  For reasons of proportionality and structure, the best view of the January sell-off is an impulse down followed by some upward correction underway that began last Wednesday.

The 3 waves down since Thursday strongly suggest that there will be a new low.  Alternate'' 2 is a bullish option but it is difficult to see how the Wednesday-Thursday rally could be a truncated impulse which the count requires.  Alternate'' seems more likely, but then there is only moderate proportionality between 2 and 4 and no alternation in these corrections, a step down from the primary wave count.

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