Friday, February 21, 2014

Friday 2/21/14 Market Update

The short-term primary wave count has changed to an alternate option from the last update.  The longer range options remain unchanged however.

2/5-2/19 very likely marked an impulse or zigzag higher.  The pullback that followed set the stage for another wave higher.  Since it was so close to exceeding the initial high made this week, it is almost certainly part of the larger upward structure that began 2/5.

A complete zigzag higher during the period 2/5-2/21 is possible.  The problem is the small size and truncation of it, two uncommon features.  In fact it is not even 23.6% of the size of the first leg, a worse number than the one between the impulse legs of W of (A) of [4].  If a double zigzag higher since 2/5 is underway, another leg higher to probably a new all-time high is required to give 3 waves from the 2/20 low.

The best option among the upward corrective options is the one marked above; a zigzag higher since 2/5 but with C still developing.  I favor this more than impulse wave [5] underway since 2/5 because of the already large size and clear strength of the rally.

A downward flat or something more complex is possible since the 2/19 high.  This would require a relatively complex upward 2/20-2/21 double zigzag with a lack of symmetry so this option is not preferred.

The 2/20-2/21 wave higher appears to be an impulse with some additional action higher.  So this is bullish and suggests eventual action above the 2/19 high.

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