The wave count from the last update remains unchanged. The rally that began this week should continue until the last all-time high is tested and then probably exceeded. This move will almost certainly conclude the move higher that began 10/4/11. After that impulse wave concludes, the market should begin selling off to a level that will be at least proportional to the large 7/7/11-10/4/11 decline. The alternate wave count in the chart above is not a bad option and it will not be clear which option, the primary or alternate, is correct until the market sells-off in earnest.
The bearish scenario at this time is a termination of the multi-year impulse higher realized at the last recovery high followed by an impulse down, then a flat higher as alternate' depicts. The 'b' wave of the flat is very large in relation to 'a' however which is not typical in a flat (or a second wave).
The short-term waves also do not work well with alternate' (or alternate'') as an impulse wave higher since the Wednesday low is not the choice that comes most natural; there is not good balance to this wave. [5] seems to be moving higher in a simple fashion (as waves tend to do) without much subdivision where its core has not yet been seen.
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