Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Wednesday 3/12/14 Market Update

The primary wave count has now changed to alternate'' 2 from the last update.  Even if this wave count is wrong, it is extremely likely that the wave higher that began 2/5/14 is not yet complete.  It remains true that the bull market that began in 2009 has at least a couple of months of time remaining before it completes.

So far there are three waves higher since the 2/5/14 low.  There is a sideways correction underway since [3] or an impulse higher is underway since 2/15.  When considering the subwaves, a double zigzag higher from the 2/5 low is only an alternate count, alternate', due to the lack of proportionality between the 'b' waves in its zigzag legs.  The short-term chart below strongly suggests a new all-time high coming soon, thus a zigzag higher since 2/5 is not likely (unless the impulse higher developing since the March low is wave 'c', but this seems a bit complex).

The structure lower since the Tuesday high looks like a clear zigzag.  Really the entire structure down since Friday is essentially impossible to label as impulsive.  I suppose this whole move could be wave 1 of a leading diagonal lower, but this seems amazingly complex and in a pattern that is very uncommon.  A better option is alternate': alternate with [a] of Y at the Friday high then [b] completing at the Tuesday AM low followed by an extremely short and truncated wave [c].  This is a strange and poor option because of the proportionality problem between [a] and [c] however.  Far more likely is a test of the last all-time high.  That level should not stop price because of the already large size of the pullback since the last all-time high in relation to the impulse higher since the March low.

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