Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Wednesday 3/26/14 Market Update

In the long-term, the message remains unchanged from the last update: an impulse wave higher that began in 2011 looks incomplete given the 3-wave nature of the rally since 2/5/14.

While not invalidated, an impulse higher since 2/5 is now a mediocre option (alternate').  The better choice is alternate''.  It suggests a considerable amount of (B) remaining with a triangle wave X marking the middle.  The primary wave count is also a completing double zigzag higher since 2/5, but one in a later stage than alternate''.  A double zigzag higher can be complete (alternate'' 2), but there is poor proportionality between the [b] waves with Y looking a bit small and nearly truncated.

Some other variation of alternate'' can be underway with the triangle X substituted with a complex flat.  This would allow 1840 to be reached and still give a bullish picture in the short-term, but this option seems amazingly complex and not a natural choice.  There could also still be 5 waves down for 'c' of a flat developing since the 3/21 high, but this would not give good balance to any potential flat so it is a weak option.  In other words, if ~1850 does not hold as support, it is likely that alternate'' 2 is correct.

The sell-off from today's high appears to be an impulse about complete.  ~1850 support should hold tomorrow.

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