Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Wednesday 3/5/14 Market Update

There is no change to the long-term view from the last update.  Given the structure of the rally since 2/5/14, wave [4] still appears to be underway as a sideways correction.  A swing lower is expected, but the rally that began in 2009 is almost certainly incomplete.

So far there is a 3-wave advance higher since 2/5/14.  It would be extraordinary if this rally develops into 5 waves because of the shallowness of the correction the past few week and that fact that a number like 2000 would be expected at its termination.  In other words, it seems like it would take an impossible amount of momentum to yield an impulse since 2/5.

A zigzag family pattern higher is far more likely.  A single zigzag is the most simple and preferred (especially since (A) was a double zigzag), but if the market continues to flirt with new all-time highs Thursday and/or Friday, a double zigzag (alternate'') will become the favorite option.

An ending diagonal wave [5] could be underway since 2/5 (alternate'), but keep in mind, as always, that these patterns are just not that common.

The waves today were confusing, but even if alternate'' is correct, there should be a test of 1869 again to give proportionality between the 'b' corrections of a double zigzag higher from 2/5.

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