Saturday, August 16, 2014

Friday 8/15/2014 Market Update

The action during the last two sessions does not cause a change to the view expressed last time.  In the long term, there remain the possibilities expressed here, that there can be an impulse higher since 2014 [iv] underway, a sideways correction underway since 2013 [iii], or a correction underway of size as large as the pullbacks seen since the 2011 low (a size like (2), 2, [ii], etc.), but these remain weak possibilities due to the structural problems that they possess but the wave count in color above does not.
If an impulse higher since the 2014 [iv] low is underway, there is a 5th wave impulse higher beginning at 2013 [ii] that is paired with (1), 4 to 2014 [iii] is a 5th wave paired with 1, or the core of the impulse higher since 2011 is somewhere within wave 5 or higher.  The first possibility avoids structural problems, but lacks symmetry where (1) is quite small relative to the wave higher since 2013 [ii] and impulse (2) to 2013 [i] does not have a well-centered core.  The second possibility is best but has structural problems where 4 to 2014 [iii] does not work well as an impulse wave; clearly an impulse from 4 to (i) lacks even mild proportionality between its 2nd and 4th waves.  The third option is very unlikely because 2012-3 [iii] looks so much like a 3rd wave relative to anywhere else in the impulse.

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