Monday, August 24, 2009

Friday 8/21/09-Monday 8/24/09 1m Chart

Today the market reached a new high at 1035.82 before giving back all the gains; that market actually closed slightly lower for the day.

I called the topping of the market in real time today on Kenny's blog. An ending diagonal formed completing what I estimate to be wave v of (iii) of [iii] of C. The market then sold down with determination as expected. Wave v has been fully retraced with the market bouncing off wave iv resistance. There is clear divergence on a variety of scales as well so expect at least a bounce tomorrow, or wave (v) of [iii] as the above count suggests.

Waves following the high today were impulsive but it is not clear what pattern they are forming or have formed. A zigzag pattern seems most likely to me although a larger impulse can be seen as well. There are many alternate counts at this point. Wave (iv) may still be underway.

It is unlikely that wave C has completed based on ratios and structure. Wave C has been underway for only about 1 week whereas wave A completed in over 4 weeks. Wave C is about 38.2% of wave A, not even close to 50%, 61.8%, or higher. Waves tend towards balance and this wave (Y) is not even close to reaching that point. Although I do not expect equality between A and C, (Y) should be at least somewhat proportioned.

Impulsive waves from the high but they do not form a clear pattern.

Degrees are off. Wave v of (iii) of [iii] of C was not completed, wave [5] of iii of (iii) of [i] of C was completed. This calls for a big wave [iii] rally at a later point.

Wave (iv) did not complete.

Primary wave [2] has topped.

Some other creative impulsive count since 8/17/09.

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