Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Monday 8/24/09-Tuesday 5/25/09 1m Chart

The market rallied this morning setting a new intermediate term high before selling lower during the remaining hours of trading. This is similar to the action seen yesterday. The count shown yesterday appears to be been correct, it was the setup for wave (v) of [iii] that appears to have been completed today. That means [iv] of C of (Y) of [2] is underway. In other words, the rally should see one more impulse of minute degree (green labeled wave) before primary wave [2] tops and primary wave [3] down begins. Expect this to happen in days, not weeks or months.

From today's high, a zigzag appears to have been completed but was small suggesting a wave [iv] double is forming. The rally up off the lows today at the end of the day looked more like 7 waves than 5, so this supports the complex correction idea. Given this and the small size of the 7 wave pattern, I would expect that wave to be wave a of (x) of [iv] where wave (x) is a developing flat or triangle. This is labeled but is only an educated guess of the developing structure. In any case if [iv] is a double, it may take a day or two more to complete. This makes sense because wave (iv) of [iii] is currently smaller than [iv]. A double zigzag may also be forming, this is more bearish in the short term. A triangle or flat is also possible.

What is [iv] and when will it complete if it has not already?

C looks like it will end considerably smaller than A. Will it even be 61.8% of A?

Wave [v] topped, somehow, with primary wave [3] beginning. This is a 1-2, 1-2 setup for a "3rd of a 3rd" decline down.

Various counts for [iv].

Degree labellings are off.

A wave is extending and wave [iv] has not yet been reached.

A large flat is completing with 'b' wave topping today.

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