Monday, June 14, 2010

Monday 6/14/10 Market Update

The count has not changed since Friday's update. It appears that wave (iii) of [c] of flat wave 2 has completed with corrective double zigzag wave (iv) complete or nearly complete. A bounce is required almost immediately tomorrow if the count is correct. If prices break lower and perhaps gap down, then the ending diagonal alternate count suggested will become the primary count. 1085 and 1080 need to hold of the short term uptrend is to continue.

The suggested ending diagonal is not particularity desirable, although there is wedging with wave (v) the shortest wave and wave (i) the longest wave. There is no overlap between (i) and the end of (iv) which is one of the very common characteristics of ending diagonals. Also wave (iv) appears to be a triangle or double which is again unusual; a zigzag family pattern should appear in second and 4th wave positions.

1106 was nearly reached today. This is within our 1100-1120 target for wave 2's completion. It goes without saying that 1106-1120 is the target area for the completion of wave (v) of [c] of 2. Any new high within these levels should create negative divergence on a variety of indicators. Wave 2 should complete tomorrow unless (iv) extends or (v) completes in a slow fashion (e.g. if (v) is an ending diagonal).

The larger view has not changed.

A view of the first few waves (intermediate wave (1) of [1]) following the 2007 peak can be seen above. This is a daily bar chart.

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