Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Tuesday 10/26/10 Market Update

The view expressed in yesterday's update has not changed. Wave [iv] of ending diagonal wave C should be complete at today's low. A final upward zigzag or two should complete wave [v], but at this early stage its precise form is not clear. A single zigzag is the most simple view, so this is the assumption until proven otherwise.

If there is a gap higher tomorrow, it should be the "3rd of 3rd" wave of the advance since the afternoon low. The size of any upward advance and the action after that advance will help us determine how close wave [v] is to completing. Thursday seems to be a reasonable completion date at this point, but tomorrow is also possible.

If [iii] is complete, wave [v] cannot exceed 1214; 3rd waves cannot be the shortest.

With a 1214 maximum for C, (Z) will truncate falling short of the April high. The expectation then is a fairly quick retracement of (Z) after its completion. In addition C is an ending diagonal, so this will create an extra spark in the move lower while also adding confidence to the view that a final top in March 2009 rally will be reached following C's completion.

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