Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Wednesday 10/27/10 Market Update

After another leg down today, wave [iv] should be complete as a double zigzag. The assumption is a simple single zigzag wave [v] underway, even if it truncates. Wave (a) of [v] (or a of (w) of [v] if [v] is a double zigzag) should wind down tomorrow.

If a significant top is already in place, the gap lower today will likely not be filled and the sell-off will resume tomorrow. This appears unlikely however given that ~78.6% of the last leg down has been retraced. There is a corrective look to the sell-off this week that cannot be counted as a well-proportioned impulse wave.

Wave [ii] has been relabeled as a flat+zigzag double. Sideways corrections are unusual in ending diagonals but do not break the rules. This labeling is necessary so wedging in C is still preserved. In my opinion the new labeling actually works better with the subwaves. For example, the 10/12-10/13 rally looks more like a zigzag than an impulse.

1208 is now the upper bound for [v]. The upper wedge line of C (the upper blue line) may not be reached by [v] because of its slope. Given the heaviness in the market, [v] can even truncate.

Wave (Z) may complete Friday or certainly early next week at the latest. If the count is correct, wave (Z) will truncate.

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