Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Tuesday 11/9/10 Market Update

The view that wave (iv) has been unfolding has not changed since yesterday's update. This wave should now be complete as a flat as illustrated above. If this is not correct, an impulse wave lower that is part of a larger decline will become the primary count.

The sell-off today was fairly strong, however about 38.2% of wave (iii) was retraced, a normal level. Wave (iv) is quite wide, but the alternative for a (v) wave top today is hard to justify when looking at the structure of rally since yesterday and the rally since Friday 11/5.

In the short term, the guess is a gap higher tomorrow that may be the core of i or iii of (v) depending on its size.

An estimate for a top at 1227-1231 is arrived at by using the short term action (looking for near wave (i) and (v) wave equality), intermediate term action (wave A and C equality, wave [iii] and [v] of C equality), and the 61.8% retracement level for the entire 2007-2009 decline (1228.74).

The final top should be achieved soon. If (v) is an ending diagonal, a top next week is possible, but a more typical impulse wave higher should put the probability with a complete top due later this week.

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