Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Wednesday 11/10/10 Market Update

The market broke under yesterday's low early in trading then rallied for the remainder of the day. It initially appeared that a market top was in yesterday, but this is once again questionable for several reasons.

The retracement of the decline is now slightly above the 61.8% retracement level with the rally counting well as a complete impulse wave. Also wave (iv), if the top is already in, is quite odd as a zigzag+flat double and does not count naturally. It is not well proportioned to wave (ii). Finally the impulse lower has a very corrective feel with several broken guidelines, an indication that it is a wave within a larger corrective pattern.

For the reasons above, the now large retracement of (iii) and large size of (iv) is acceptable but does not disprove the complete top argument. If prices move lower tomorrow, particularity under today's low, this will be a very strong indication that the top completed Tuesday.

The entire rally since March 2009 should complete following the completion of the rally since 8/31. A more comprehensive view of the count can be seen here.

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