As the count suggested yesterday, the market began selling off immediately after the open Friday. An impulse wave lower, perhaps as described above, may be complete. The count has not been changed since yesterday's update.
There is a possible 1-2, 1-2 wind-up since 2/24. A wind-up of this scale suggests an explosion in price this week. This seems unlikely due to the momentum of what is a very mature advance since late November or last summer.
In addition, the last swing higher (Thursday-Friday) is difficult to count as an impulse wave. A 5-wave decline since the last recovery high also seems likely.
If the trend higher is to continue, wave [iv] or [v] of an advance since Summer 2010 should be underway. At this point there are likely two good impulse waves complete since late August.
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