Thursday, March 3, 2011

Thursday 3/3/11 Market Update

The count shown in yesterday's update was invalidated today. The gap higher today is clearly the core of an impulse wave that began yesterday.

A complete zigzag corrective wave higher can be counted complete as shown above. At the heart of it, this count is preferred due to what appears to be a clear downward impulse wave Wednesday and Thursday. The reason is that an impulse in this position can only be wave 'c' of a flat. Taking the ~10am high Tuesday as the beginning of the flat, a zigzag is a reasonable option for the remainder of the rally that began Friday 2/25.

There may be limited upside tomorrow with a correct count or not. The move is losing momentum and there should be 2-sided action tomorrow however.

There is preference for a double zigzag corrective wave (ii), but prices must start their decline quickly to preserve the option given the large size of the pattern.

What helps the count is a good impulse count from the last recovery high and a zigzag-looking bounce from the lows. The bounce is significant because it will be hard to sustain momentum higher unless a more rare ending diagonal pattern is unfolding (and the price action really does not suggest this possibility). Also any impulsive labellings higher feature broken guidelines which is generally an indication that a counter-trend move is underway.

Even if the rally is continuing, an incomplete wave [iv] correction seems likely.

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