Sunday, January 5, 2014

Friday 1/3/14 Market Update

With the exception of some modification to the short-term labellings, there is no change to the primary wave count from the last update.  It is likely that an impulse wave higher that began 8/30/13 is complete.  Because of this, an impulse higher from November 2011 also looks complete.  If there is a correction for additional days or weeks followed by a surge to new all-time highs, the best guess will be an impulse still underway from the 10/4/11 low with a lesser option being an impulse higher since 6/24/13 still completing.

If the assumption is for an impulse wave to unfold from the 12/18 low, this wave has almost certainly completed.  The expectation moving forward is for a pullback to the support in the 1810 area for wave crossing, no matter what the correct wave count is.

Short-term action is suggestive of an eventual break of last week's lows.  The market has not shown whether a zigzag-family wave or impulse lower is unfolding, but the best options in the longer-term charts suggest something more bearish than just a test of ~1810.

I will be on vacation from the 9th-15th.  The next update will be the weekend of the 17th-19th.

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