Saturday, April 5, 2014

Friday 4/4/14 Market Update

There is no change to the wave count options in the long-term.  A impulse wave [5] underway since the 2/5/14 low seems difficult to imagine from a momentum perspective during this late stage of an impulse wave that began in 2011.

The action higher following the 2/5 low still resembles a 3-wave advance.  The sell-off following Friday's high was exactly what the wave count has been suggesting would happen with the short-term count proving to be exactly true.  This move improves the probability of the primary wave count of a complete zigzag higher since 2/5 and it will continue to strengthen as prices move lower.  While things are moving as expected, it is important to note that alternate' is still the best alternate count and not a poor option.

The action on Friday was a bit strange, but the wave down can be counted as an impulse wave, barely.  This wave can also be a double zigzag down (which might be used if alternate' is correct).

There was some momentum loss lower late in the day with a relatively large rally following what proved to be the day's low.  This is a signal that the wave down is complete and a corrective rally is beginning.

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