Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Wednesday 4/9/14 Market Update

There is still no change to the long-term options.  Wave [4] has been marked complete because of the wave development seen today.

Before stating why the change was made, there are a few good ways to describe the wave higher that began 2/5 which are worth noting.  These are a double zigzag higher still underway (alternate' 2), a zigzag underway (alternate'), a complete zigzag higher (alternate''), and an impulse higher (primary).  The incomplete double zigzag is not preferred because of the complexity.  Better is the single zigzag underway but like the double zigzag, it is already much larger than (A).  (A) and (B) do not look proportional to one another (a problem for weeks now) and this is one of the things we strive for in Elliott Wave analysis.  In relation to the other incomplete corrective options mentioned, a better option due to its simplicity and size is a complete zigzag.

Because the clear corrective option higher in the chart above is a double zigzag and this does not seem to be a great option, alternate'' is looking somewhat doubtful.  If alternate'' is not correct, this means alternate' or alternate' 2 are better options. As discussed, the complexity and size of these options are significant problems.  The primary wave count on the other hand has no problems like this.  Its structure in the sideways congestion period is really no worse than the alternate wave counts, thus this cannot be held against it.  It is uncommon for a 2nd wave to behave as this one did and this is a problem.  But the size of the sideways action is now large enough that is seems like a good-sized base to support a strong move to the 1950 area (where with strength, (3) will be longer than (1), a typical attribute for impulse waves).  Also worth noting is that wave [2] was a sideways pattern (alternates with a sharp wave [4]) and is already in good proportion to [4], so this works well with the primary wave count.

The real reason for the change in primary wave counts is due to the structure of the advance since the Tuesday low.  Price should not advance much farther if this is a second wave underway, but only an atypical double zigzag count seems worth investigating.  Not only is this option complex, but its second zigzag leg is fairly large and looks more like the core of a larger impulse wave underway.  In price rallies, generally a slow arc higher like the one seen since Tuesday is the winding up of an impulse wave.

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