Wednesday, May 21, 2014

The Market Holds Ground, but for How Long?


The following analysis was given in the last update: "over the last two years, an impulse higher developing since [4], (2), or (4) is a weak option.  A sideways correction beginning at (1) or an ending diagonal higher since (4), B, or (2) are far better options."  These long-term options remain the same today.  A more detailed explanation of why is available in the first few paragraphs here.
There is also no change to the options since the 2009 low.  A zigzag or impulse higher are the best possibilities since that time.

A sideways wave since (3) is possible and obviously suggests a test of the wave (4) April low.  It can work with a sideways correction underway since (1) or an impulse wave since [4] or later.  The complexity this option adds makes it not the most desirable of options however.
The sideways options after A have actually weakened because of the additional wave action over the last three days that needs to be worked into the possibilities.  For instance if there is a flat from [b] to 1, that wave must be part of some other larger corrective wave to explain the waves around it.  Wave [b] can be zigzag wave 'w', but the action higher since 1 then does not make sense as part of wave 'y'.  Maybe A to 1 is a zigzag+flat double, but [a] only works as a single zigzag when forcing the matter.  While there are no shortage of arrangements, all possibilities that I have looked at have fairly major problems.
Another example is a flat from A to 1.  Obviously wave 1 is the 'c' wave, but it seems that [a] to (5) needs to be labeled as a zigzag family pattern to make the count work.  Again, [b] can be a single zigzag, but wave [d] best resembles a double zigzag structurally.  Even if it is an impulse, wave [e] is very large compared to the possible 'b' wave within single zigzag wave [b].
If there is no sideways wave underway since A, it means (5) is a single zigzag as marked in color.  In order for there to be a double zigzag higher beginning at (4), a corrective 'x' wave following the (5) high needs to complete.  Wave 1 looks very much like an impulse wave and a zigzag-family pattern in that position is very unlikely so a complete corrective wave down is a very weak option.

Even though it is choppy, an impulse higher in the [a] position looks strong while zigzag-family patterns look weak.  Something non-impulsive higher is apparent since [b].  It labels well as an ending diagonal or an impulse to (i) then a sideways correction unfolding and possibly complete at (iv) as a flat.
Like any three-wave move, the action higher since 1 can be a part of a larger sideways wave.  There can also be an impulse higher forming where these three waves are only the beginning.

Find my 350 word conclusion of this market at http://www.ewaveanalytics.com as well as the consensus of two other analysts and myself.



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