Saturday, August 9, 2014

How Far will this Bounce Go?

Beginning with analysis of the longer-term waves and working to the shorter term before a final summary as usual, we find that the long-term picture has not changed.  The things to watch for in addition to the wave count in color are a sideways correction underway from 2014 [iii], an impulse higher from 2014 [iv] with 4th or 5th wave completing, and a correction underway of size as large as the pullbacks seen since the 2011 low (a size like (2), 2, [ii], etc.).  These options all remain weak however with the wave count in color always showing less problems than any other option.  A full analysis leading up to this conclusion is available here.
If there is a correction lower that is wave [4] as the wave count in color suggests, the expectation is for a continued sell-off that reaches at least the upper-1800s.  A deeper retracement would be better that could even reach the 1600s because we are looking for good proportionality between [2] and the current correction.  Even if there is a sideways wave underway since [3], the current retracement level is not that deep.  i to [2] may be a flat, so the correction underway could take a larger amount of time than the market trying to find proportionality with the wave [1] to [2] move.

If there is an impulse higher underway since (4), the market needs to reach a low very soon if it has not done so already.  There is a small chance that the sell-off is complete however.  A double zigzag down that terminated at [b] is possible, but the 'y' leg is much shorter than the 'w' leg and [b] needs to be an impulse which is not a natural labeling.
Better while still using (5) to [iii] as zigzag 'w' is a zigzag down developing since [iv] where a flat is underway since A. Wave 'w' is still off-balance as a zigzag but the structure is sound.  A flat since A is getting a bit large however, so prices need to turn soon for the option to remain valid.
If there is a zigzag to [iii] and [b] is 5 waves or [v] is 3 waves for a double zigzag from [iv] to [b], there can be a sideways correction higher since [iii].  An impulse in the [b] position or a zigzag in the [v] position is not likely however.
There can be a complete ending diagonal down since [iv] to complete an impulse wave since (5), but the size of the corrective waves in this pattern are very dissimilar so the option is not likely.  Best is a complete impulse down to A with a sideways corrective wave following.  This wave can be nearly complete as a flat with [a] and [b] the first 2 of 3 waves of the pattern, or there can be a wider flat or other sideways correction.  For example there can be a downward flat underway since [a].  Regardless of what a sideways correction since A is, notice how sideways and shallow it looks.  This is suggestive of a 'b' wave, not a 2nd wave and this works with the larger idea that there is a correction down since [3] underway.

The rally from the Thursday low looks like a developing impulse or a complete double zigzag.  What happens Monday should determine which is correct.  If this proves to be a double zigzag, then there is a more complex correction underway since A than the option in color suggests.  A flat underway since [a] would be a good bet.
An impulse down since [a] is difficult to imagine, but would be a signal that a sideways correction since [iii] is underway or a significant bottom was reached Thursday.  Notice also that [v] counts well as an impulse and not well as a zigzag.
Read more at including trend and technical analysis.

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