Monday 6/29/09-Tuesday 6/30/09 1m Chart

Today the market topped as expected; 930.01 was the high of the X wave. It then impulsed down in the morning and traded sideways for the remainder of the day. Volume was higher than yesterday indicating selling pressure; his reinforces the count that has been discussed over the last several days.

The waves after the impulse were again hard to read but the waves are looking like zigzags. I spotted a very good looking triangle in the early afternoon which changed my count until the market rallied back. Triangles are supposed to be in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of larger degree. So a triangle following an impulse should mean that there is only one more impulse remaining. So the triangle looked very much like a 'b' wave at the time.

So there should be a (ii) correction not using a triangle as the w wave but this is very difficult to find, at least a nice looking correction. As a rule a triangle should not appear as the w wave shown but this is the nicest looking correction that I could find. I am not happy with this count but it looks far better than anything else, even if the true bottom of the impulse was 912.86, not 915.33. There is a clear looking zigzag at the end of the day, it will remain to be seen if this is ending the pattern. If you can find a nice looking today I would welcome some suggestions.

Problems:
The triangle's position.

Alternatives:
Any creative correction labeling without breaking any rules.

The iv wave may be lower than shown. There are alternate counts and alternate bottoms for this impulse.

An impulse was completed today off the 888.86 bottom and it is being corrected.

X was not completed but is really a flat or a triangle. Its 'b' wave could be a double zigzag.

The double zigzag forming is just one leg of another correction.

Monday 6/29/09 1m Chart

There was short rally today before a trading range formed between 924 and 928. Volume was light but this is an abbreviated holiday week. It appears that there will be slightly more upside at some point tomorrow, perhaps the correction will conclude around 930. Keep in mind that 930.49 is a 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 956.23 top but we are already sitting at important resistance. Dan gives some Fibonacci targets but they are all clustering in this area.

The sideways movement can be interpreted in a variety of ways. Labeled above is an ending diagonal [5] of iii wave with a double zigzag iv wave following. iv could also be a triangle not yet completed.

Problems:
The [W] wave of iv looks odd, it is hard to make any nice structures out of it.

Alternatives:
Any creative patterns that can be made out of the sideways action today such as a triangle or other corrective combination. Keep in mind that iv is already wider than ii.

This is not a correction but the market is impulsing from the 888.86 lows. Unlikely as discussed in previous posts.

Not in the X wave of a double zigzag but in another correction still forming.

Degrees may be off.

Friday 6/26/09-Monday 6/29/09 1m Intraday Chart

Friday's action was clearly not an ending diagonal. I tried to label it as a 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonal but it does not appear to be one. It was reverted back to the count of the first chart posted Friday.

If this count is correct then the market is completing wave iv of (c) of [y] of X, the same idea as before. There are alternate counts for the sideways action but notice the zigzag waves. Also note that 930.49 is 61.8% retracement of W and is a nice resistance level.

Wednesday 4/1/09- Friday 6/26/09 30m Chart

If X really did top Friday 6/26/09 then it is important to think about where Y will end.

Some Fibonacci relationship targets are shown:
Blue: W from the end of X.
Pink: W from the end of W.
Green: X from end of X.
Yellow: X from end of W.

Areas with clusters of targets (especially "nice" 38.2%, 61.8%, 100%, ... targets) are areas with the best chances of Y ending. Subwaves of W can X can also be used for creating targets but that is left to the reader.

Some clear resistance levels and trend lines are also shown. After breaking these trend lines, 888.86 resistance should be broken but by how much is uncertain. Resistance levels and Fibonacci targets together can assist in locating the endpoint however.

For example there is a clear resistance area around 880 and this is also 61.8% of W from the end of X. This area may provide a bottom; if not, the market may continue down and challenge other levels. Obviously 855 provides W and Y equality so this is a nice target. It is also in an area of resistance as many other Fibonacci targets are.

Also keep in mind that W happened swiftly and with determination so W may do just the opposite by the rule of alternation. For this reason Y may not reach 100% of W.

So why the confidence in a double zigzag? X is already a double zigzag and did not reach high enough to be a flat or triangle. The pattern may not have completed but look at the apex of the triangle correlating with the 922.00 high almost perfectly! Even if it does rise more, it is doubtful that [y] will tower beyond [w]. X could turn into a triple zigzag but this is rare. There is a chance that X is only finishing its first leg (and is a flat or a triangle) but that pattern would be wide for what it is.

Note that the degree labellings may be off but the idea is exactly the same.

Thursday 6/25/09-Friday 6/26/09 1m Chart

Today the market continued trading sideways. It broke out of the shallow downward channel and is now in a shallow upward channel. The larger rally has now retraced almost exactly 50% of the decline since the 956.23 top.

The correction today did get us near a 38.2% retracement of the previous impulse. A possibility of two impulse waves can be seen up off of that low today (the first chart). This may be a zigzag or part of some other impulsive structure. Assuming the waves were two impulses, this chart is marked as if we will have more upside because this works best with that count so far. If it is only a zigzag then another count will be needed and it is sure to be a strange one; the zigzag would be part of a double zigzag but it seems very small compared to what the first would need to be. In any case the count on the first chart does not look right nor does a zigzag at the location.

Using the first chart, the market could rally from here completing the (c) of the [y] wave of the double zigzag. The 927 or 930 target discussed yesterday would then still hold. Even if there is no double zigzag, it could be completing an upward impulse of some kind. This is still an off chance because [w] looks very much like two thrusts with a wide arrangement of zigzag waves in between.

Kenny just posted a chart showing an ending diagonal scenario, I agree with this idea completely; it is a 5 and would be the (c) wave of [y]; wave X is then completed. I have posted another chart showing this. The chart solves many problems and looks better on the very small scale, consider wave (5) of [1] on the first chart near the close. Also we have not seen this pattern in some time, that supports its existence. This is my primary count.

With this count the market will sell-off Monday and may gap down. Note also that the triangle apex I mentioned yesterday and earlier (http://natesmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/monday-61509-15m-chart.html) lines up almost perfectly with the high around the close. If W really has begun this reinforces the idea that that really was a triangle.

Problems:
Zigzag looking pattern but at the end of a rally.

Alternatives:
Triple zigzag completed but this is a rare pattern. Also the (a) of [y] wave would need to be a zigzag and it looks like a clear impulse.

Zigzag at the close was the second zigzag in a double zigzag.

A 5 wave impulse completing soon, currently in the 5th wave of it. A 1st wave completed Wednesday and we are now in the "3rd of a 3rd" wave of a larger impulse. Any other creative impulsive structure off of 888.86.

In wave 2 of a larger decline. Seems very unlikely at this point considering the zigzag looking structure of W.

Degrees may be off.

Tuesday 6/23/09-Thursday 6/25/09 1m Chart

The market had a strong rally today after bouncing off of the 200 day moving average early in the morning. The zigzag idea off the 956.23 top is the primary count once again; the market needed to break down confirming a 3rd wave but it did not. This count implies that we are sill in primary wave 2 with more upside to come. Volume was lower again today, about the same level as yesterday.

There are various counts for the action shown but this count shows a WXY double zigzag scenario in which the X wave with its own double zigzag is still being completed. Yet another count is shown for Tuesday's structure to come to this. The double zigzag, should it be completed, could be a part of a larger correction (triangle, flat, etc.). The same goes for a single zigzag obviously.

It appears that we finished a 5 wave impulse up and are poised to move higher; the market did not impulse down off the highs today, but gave us a 3 wave correction. Following that it nearly hit another high. This action near the close may be a flat after an impulse down but the retracement was extremely deep and the pattern looks too wide. The pullback did not hit a 38.2% retracement but did cover the territory of the iv wave of (a).

If we get that final impulse, I would expect it to stop right around 927, there is resistance there. Here (c) would be 50% of (a). At 930, there would be a 61.8% retracement from the 956.23 high and [w] would be about 61.8% of [y]. A move beyond these numbers would indicate some other pattern is taking place.

As a reminder we will be crossing a triangle apex tomorrow and I stated earlier (http://natesmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/monday-61509-15m-chart.html). It may amount to nothing but is something to consider especially if the waves continue to be confusing as they have been.

Finally I would like to thank all of the viewers who have become followers of my blog!

Problems:
Still hard to make anything out of Tuesday and Wednesday market action. The waves look corrective however with many zigzags at Tuesday's close.

Alternatives:
Many things. A single completed zigzag or flat off of W.

The correction is over and we are starting Y or a "3rd of a 3rd" down tomorrow.

The pullback at the close was a 4th wave in a larger impulse.

The zigzag completed at 888.86 but we are impulsing up off of it. We would have a "3rd of a 3rd" tomorrow.

Tuesday 6/23/09-Wednesday 6/24/09 1m Chart

This is an update to my earlier posting today. A double zigzag [ii] wave is now shown with an impulse sell-off from its top. Thanks Kenny for your great ascending triangle idea! Those waves at yesterday's close are best seen as zigzags.

If we did have a triangle, the market was only in correction (triangles are only allowed near the end of patterns). It is the reason [ii] is marked at the top.

This structure as the count shows is very bearish; tomorrow could be a very weak day with a big gap down. The market continues to operate within the bearish channel since 956.23 as Dan has shown. 872 (projecting the length of [i] down from [ii]) at the least should end [iii] if it does occur. If it is less then we may be completing a corrective wave as one of my alternatives discusses. In any case when a 5 wave impulse structure occurs off of a top, we will see another impulse wave unless the 5 wave count was not correct.

[ii] retraced between 50% to 61.8% of [i] which is normal for second waves. (ii), if it is correct, was a 38.2% retracement of (i).

Problems:
(i) is not very nice looking but the Fed announcement did come out in the middle of the pattern.

It is still difficult to make out yesterday's waves. They do not look impulsive though.

Alternatives:
[ii] is really an 'a' wave and (i) is really a 'b' wave completed or still completing. This would be making a flat or some other correction. This count would probably imply that [i] was actually [c] or C and we are going to complete a double zigzag with some [b] or B wave in between them. The alternative is a wide [i] wave but that is not likely. (i) could turn into double zigzag if it is not one already.

We will be completing a rare triple zigzag with the 3rd zigzag starting today.

The degree labellings may be off.

Tuesday 6/23/09-Wednesday 6/24/09 1m Intraday Chart

The market is impulsing today and is looking more bullish than bearish; the (c) or (iii) wave is more extended than the (a) or (i) wave (about 2 times as long). The count shown looks more as if [c] bottomed but the market could still go either way.

We moved through the 50% retracement level of the [i] or [c] wave.

Monday 6/22/09-Tuesday 6/23/09 1m Chart

Today was a very difficult day to analyze waves but we did bottom in the 880s as I expected. From what I can see we did finish the 5th wave talked about yesterday (now labeled (v)), it bounced off the top set of my targets. Then for the remainder of the day there was a sideways movement of corrective nature telling us that we are not only in wave 3 but this wave is not yet complete. An impulsive wave structure needed to take place to prove that we reached some sort of bottom. This did not take place so there will probably be a very bearish market ahead of us, at least for the short term. The is likely because the "point of recognition" or "3rd of a 3rd" wave is ahead of us.

On a bullish note the market is still in an oversold condition but these indicators can ride on the floor for a long period of time; the market does not have to rebound when it is in an oversold condition. There are also resistance levels coming but again with enough people behind any side of the market, it can go anywhere. Also we may have had the golden cross today in which the 50 and 200 days moving averages crossed. But again the market is not required to do anything and these are lagging indicators. It is an important psychological point though.

The labels were changed by one degree and may need to be changed again if this truly is primary wave 3. This could turn into some other correction of primary wave 2 such as a double zigzag or a larger zigzag not yet completed. More market information will tell us this.

The whole correction is looking the same as the last few we have seen off the top; complex and hard to read! I spent a large part of the day trying to interpret the sideways market action. It was difficult because some waves look to be either 3-wave or 5-wave structures; even worse some look like 3-wave or 5-wave structures only to have a paradox tell you it is just the opposite. I tried various counts but ran into many dead ends. The best looking count is shown above.

One thing that is clear to me is that this is not one large triangle but does contain a triangle somewhere within it given the overlap and small zigzags. Another option is an expanding triangle (y) wave in development. However this does not look as nice and is rare so it is not my primary count.

Wave (v) was very sloppy and its count is also up for grabs.

Problems:
Some wave look more like 3-wave structures yet are impulsive, at least in my count.

Some look more like 5-wave structures yet are 3-wave structures, at least in my count.

The (v) wave looks sloppy and there is not much wedging.

Alternatives:
An expanding triangle (y) wave not yet finished.

This sideways action is actually an impulse with a wide correction.

(v) was actually a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3?) and we retraced it nicely today, about 78.6%, a target.

This wide correction is actually part of (iv) not yet completed. That would seem very wide however.

Friday 6/19/09-Monday 6/22/09 1m Chart

The market gaped down confirming the count (the labeling degree was changed but the count remains the same). We appear to be completing wave [v] from the recent correction top. The structure off of this correction has not been as dramatic as the wave off the 956.23 highs thus it appears that this is a C wave, not wave 3. This implies that primary wave 2 is not over and will continue for some time to come.

In addition this market is looking too oversold to really be starting primary wave 3. We are also encountering some resistance around 880s so that should provide a bottom. If it does, then this is a good sign that this was only a correction.

Some approximate targets are shown for the end of [v] and C; white is the length of A (100%, not shown, extends to ~874.72), green is the length of [iii], blue is the length of [i], and purple is the length of [i] through [iii]. A channel is also drawn.

Something to start thinking about is the possible larger structure that C is a part of, e.g. a triangle, flat, double zigzag, etc. We should bottom tomorrow and start to bounce but how high it takes us in not known.

Problems:
[iv] was a sharp correction just as [ii] was; there is no alternation.

Alternatives:
Wave [iv] is not over.

The end of [v] is actually [i], just part of a larger 3rd wave.

This is the 3rd wave, and 5 will be smaller than 3.

Again the labellings could be too large by one degree, perhaps only [c] is being completed, not C.

There was an ending diagonal wave [v] at the close or a leading diagonal for a first wave. However the ending diagonal looks too small in comparison to the other waves. It looks more like a setup for a gap down tomorrow. Then again wave [v] is 61.8% of wave [i] at the close.

Thursday 6/18/09-Friday 6/19/09 1m Chart

The action near the close yesterday appears to have been a flat. Following this was another zigzag looking pattern topping at 926.92 with truncation that preceded a market sell-off in the early afternoon. The triple zigzag pattern is rare but is the best looking count.

A rebound followed but does not look impulsive; there is a clear zigzag at the end of the pattern (marked by the [X] wave) with something else leading the bounce that was crossed by the (B) of the zigzag. Following this there was a sell-off that nearly crossed into (A) of [Y]. The near crossing and its width gives doubt to it being the 4th wave of a larger impulse still being developed. It is more likely the beginning of iii however it is difficult to make out any of its waves but it may contain a leading diagonal. If we are sitting with an uncompleted 3rd wave as it appears, we could gap down on Monday powering through resistance.

The market action has now exceeded a 38.2% retracement of the entire move down from the top (956.23) and has retraced almost all of the 4th wave of that impulse. In other words we are sitting at a nice position for a large market sell-off and this supports the finer count shown here.

The impulse bounced off of the lowest trendline formed during this correction. A channel line is forming in the opposite direction as shown.

Problems:
The i wave was retraced heavily, greater than 61.8%.

i contains clear impulsive waves but some waves are not clear, particularly [1] and [4].

Triple zigzags are almost never seen.

Alternatives:
Kenny's idea of this being a double zigzag, not a triple zigzag, may have been correct since we had another zigzag pattern today. Dan's (b) wave idea posted today (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFYuLwjVdbZ5CFcWuddkn0UzUDSHY_DbDibQQEU1GbJPFv-vr0RQcOYcR5mURSQOmhd8DxPA9uLJ9wZkohN69d_o-jBHHuINFg0k-TQSdXAgaTXp8iSu3891LfSMSHR2TWWfS1FDZLrwfe/s1600-h/5.png) may also be accurate to give us a double zigzag.

There may be alternatives to the wave count off of 2 or B that I am not seeing. There may be a way to call it a zigzag then setting us up for an alternative triple zigzag if Kenny's count yesterday is correct. But this is difficult, particularity finding a long enough 3rd wave of 1 of A of the zigzag.

The top was really the absolute one with 5 waves coming down along the trendline shown. However the 2nd wave would be a very large retracement and the finer counts do not support this well.

It is not of major concern but the degree of my labellings after 2 or B may not be correct, it may be too low by one degree. 2 or B may be of wrong degree as well, we will not know until the market gives us more information.

Wednesday 6/17/09-Thursday 6/18/09 1m Chart

The corrective bounce still happened today as I expected but the pattern looks more like a double zigzag rather than a single zigzag. This was apparent when a triangle (b) wave formed dividing [y]. The breakout impulse was about equal to the widest part of the triangle. Notice the apex of the triangle hitting that 921.48 top nicely.

We crossed into the territory of wave [iv] today but not by much. There has not been the sizable retracement that you would expect for a 2nd wave, not even 38.2%. So far the bounce has been quite weak giving doubts of [v] being an ending diagonal. However it probably does not matter; for one thing its (i) and (iv) waves missed crossing by 0.02, giving a possible reinterpretation as an impulse.

It is unclear whether or not the correction is over. Perhaps there will be a [z] wave to complete a triple zigzag but this is rare. Note that the waves following the [y] top do not look impulsive, however the "look" of waves can be deceiving as we have seen over the past few days. The market could also be setting up for a "3rd of a 3rd" gap down tomorrow.

Also on a larger scale we also need more information to determine the market's overall intention. The most likely options are marked by the blue minor waves (the degree may be too large by one but that can be easily changed later). In either case we seem destined to have a C or 3 down wave coming where its ending point will be telling in the overall structure.

Problems:
The [w] wave looks bad but may look just as bad as an impulse.

Weakness of the bounce.

Alternatives:
A single zigzag so far off of [v] however [y] does not look impulsive.

The whole pattern is forming the first wave of a flat in which case the correction will last for days more.

Some other creative correction that is still being developed.

The blue minor wave 1 or A was actually a double zigzag down making this not a correction but a new wave up in primary wave 2. So far it does not look impulsive.

Tuesday 6/16/09-Wednesday 6/17/09 1m Chart

The market behaved as I expected with a limited sell-off in the morning hours then a rebound. However recent action off the highs are now looking more like a completed impulse with an ending diagonal 5th than a corrective zigzag or double zigzag. Sure enough Dan posted a chart with the same idea (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrIw7nnvvSNEBE2F8volhcX4nFjOXuk3qyG0qi1dh5l9bruWcd5fSc5jw0iRDoDXUi3RoFKkb87RsckEyxxSxTCQ4avfg7a1K9icKIlDhIb_msGBGKU8ZmmcVfno5oEbefXaUKEVjST71j/s1600-h/spx5.png) and I agree completely with his analysis. Rather than reproducing that chart I have posted a 1 minute chart covering some fine details over the last 2 days.

The [a] wave count is not certain but this seems to be an impulse hitting resistance with (v) being the shortest wave by a hair ((iii) cannot be the shortest wave without violating Elliott wave theory rules). If [a] was an impulse we should have a [b] wave pullback (may have finished it with the zigzag looking formation near the close) then another 5 wave [c] wave to complete a zigzag. In addition there seems to more correction of the impulse wave down to come, the correction so far has not reached the territory of the [iv] wave and looks small from a time perspective. 928 is a target for the correction, 924 would be a 38% retracement. Also if [v] really was a ending diagonal we should have a hefty retracement of it.

Waves (i) and (iv) of [v] did not cross (missed by only 0.02) but did cross on other indices. It is important to note that we cannot use other indicies to determine the S&P 500 count but it is something to think about. I view the crossing within ending diagonals more as a guideline to be taken very seriously than as a rule. One reason for choosing this pattern over an impulse is due to the zigzag nature of waves (iii) and perhaps (v); those counts come much more naturally and (i) can go either way. Also we came so close to crossing with [v] clearly wedging (with each succeeding wave getting shorter) that it may be more unnatural to think of [v] as an impulse.

So far for a correction following an ending diagonal the waves have not soared back above 920 and that is a sign of weakness just as the lack of crossing can be viewed as market weakness, at least for an ending diagonal. But the ending diagonal took days to form and the correction will not happen immediately.

We bounced off of the 200 day moving average but it seemed a bit weak giving doubts that this is still primary wave 2.

Problems:
The wave (i) of [v] looks more like an impulse to me than a zigzag. The impulse alternative was charted on my last post.

It is hard to make out 5 wave impulses on some of the other green minute waves of the larger impulse at this point.

Alternatives:
Any type of zigzag combination down from the 956.23 highs.

This could be the start of primary wave 3 or just a larger correction.

Monday 6/15/09-Tuesday 6/16/09 1m Chart

Today seemed like the 5th wave conclusion of an impulse down starting 6/11/09. But at the close there was a surprise drop almost breaking to new lows. So it is likely that there has been no impulse down, or at least not a complete one.

My count is a double zigzag with the last (c) of [y] to be completed tomorrow completing a minor degree corrective wave (the dimension may be too large by one degree but that can be easily changed later). There are many possible counts for this in the greater primary 2 wave so I will post something on the matter when the market gives us more information. It is all speculation at this point but it seems to me that this is not the beginning of primary wave 3 but a correction in upward price action.

In addition we are very close to the 200 day moving average and may bounce off of it as a support area.

Although the corrective [x] wave is not incredibly important on a microscopic level it is interesting to see what may have happened. Note the expanding diagonal a wave then contracting ending diagonal c wave of (y). It seems odd to have these strung together and may not be possible but I do not see any rules prohibiting it. The abc could also be a wxy double zigzag. The a wave shown is a possibility, note that the 5th waves of both [3] and [5] are both truncated, again this may not be allowed but truncation would be the case even for a zigzag a wave as far as I can tell. I am unable to find any other options here without overlapping the red micro sub waves.

Also b of (y) was an expanding flat with its [A] flat's first wave making a new high, [B] never exceeded that high (c did however but only by .02!). Again odd but the alternative appears to be an expanding ending diagonal in [5] which is not allowed. It is interesting to study the market behavior on this level because it can raise important questions like these and can also give more information about future corrections within its respective impulse wave using the rule of alternation.

Alternatives:
It could be an extended 5th wave continuing tomorrow where we open finishing the 3rd of the 5th and complete the impulse down. But the 5th would be very large and just does not feel quite right to me.

We could have the 3rd wave of an impulse still being developed.

We may be heading up tomorrow with an impulse from the peak having been completed. The deep correction in this case is the wave 2 following a leading diagonal.

The whole pattern is wedging and Kenny posted an abc zigzag possibility with the [c] an ending diagonal. This may happen but I can count 5 waves in the selloff today as shown and the waves are not overlapping (overlapping may not be a requirement though). This pattern may play out but the [c] wave he shows is very large in time and distance compared to the [a] wave and it appears to be looking for another move lower.

Monday 6/15/09 30m Chart

Today was another difficult day for an Elliott wave analyst. The morning took on an impulsive nature but then waves began to overlap. The action appeared to be an ending diagonal at first but then sideways action developed. There was a chance of a contracting triangle for a moment only to have the rally at the end of the day wipe away the possibility.

There was a gap down today breaking through 935.66 so a zigzag correction alternative mentioned on my post yesterday appears to have been the real count. The orthodox top of that correction may have been at Friday's close. But with the information the market has given us, it is hard to say whether or not we are in a corrective phase (and of what degree) or the new bear market of primary wave 3. The bullish percentage has been high for a long time now but it can still move higher.

We touched the large primary wave 2 trendline today, we may bounce off of it or break through it. We are at a critical point.

In pink there is a relationship between the last two sell-offs seen in the market. If this really is an abc correction down then the a wave is about 78.6% of the c wave. A wxy double zigzag is also in play. Of course this sell-off may develop into an impulse down, creating a wave 1 or a wave a of some larger pattern.

More notable is the clear triangle we had earlier this month. The triangle's bd and ac lines are connected and extended, they meet on June 26th. We may have an important turning point in the market on that day. Also note the impulse up off of the e wave. It reached 956.23, almost exactly the width of the widest part of the triangle (the projection was 955.81 shown in blue). This tells us that the triangle was probably a 4th wave of something, not a b wave, and the impulse to the highs was a 5th. The 4th and 5th waves of what remains to be seen. But given this it makes sense the market is selling off now. We have had divergence as well.

There are so many possible counts to explain this massive rally it is hard to say where we are at. Kenny and Dan have had great counts but there may be other possibilities out there.

Disclaimer

The material on this blog has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any visitor. My blog is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments.

I may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to on this blog. In addition, I may make purchases and/or sales of these securities or derivatives. I accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. My comments are an expression of opinion. I recommend that you consult with a licensed, qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

Friday 6/12/09 1m Chart

The chart from Friday shows a bullish scenario that would result in a "3rd of a 3rd" gap up on Monday. This is my primary count and puts us in minute [iii] of minor C of intermediate (Y) of primary [2] as Dan has talked about. Other ideas for primary wave 2 are also in play.

A double three is shown midday with a triangle ending it. There were many zigzag based waves so a triangle in this sideways movement makes sense.

Problems:
I am not fond of the (i) wave as an impulse here as its iv and v waves look small. Also the ii wave of (iii) looks like an impulse down, not a zigzag.

Alternatives:
A double zigzag correction with the sideways action splitting the zigzags or a single zigzag with a wide correction between the impulses. The rally at the close makes me wonder about these scenarios though.

Perhaps the count is correct but ii has not yet been completed, perhaps it is a flat needing an impulse down Monday morning.